# On-Chain Analysis: 5 Metrics That Predicted the Last Bull Run
As Bitcoin (BTC) navigates its post-halving consolidation phase, understanding key on-chain metrics can provide valuable insights into its future trajectory. Historically, specific indicators have reliably signaled major market movements. This analysis delves into five critical metrics that predicted the last bull run and evaluates their current status to forecast Bitcoin’s performance in 2026.
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## Key Metrics Analysis
### Current Price
– **BTC Price (Jan 14, 2026):** $75,000
– **Historical Context:** Bitcoin is consolidating after its fourth halving in April 2024, during which block rewards dropped to 3.125 BTC.
### Resistance Levels
– **Local Resistance:** $78,500
– **Major Resistance:** $85,000
– **Significance:** These levels represent psychological and technical barriers where selling pressure has historically intensified.
### Support Floors
– **Primary Support:** $70,000
– **Secondary Support:** $65,000
– **Significance:** These floors act as critical price zones where buyer interest typically resurfaces.
### RSI (14) Status
– **Current RSI:** 54
– **Interpretation:** Neutral zone, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions.
### MACD Trend
– **MACD Line:** Bullish crossover observed in December 2025.
– **Histogram Status:** Positive momentum, though weakening slightly in recent weeks.
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## Market Forecast for Bitcoin (BTC) in 2026
To provide a balanced outlook, we evaluate both Bullish and Bearish scenarios based on the current data.
### Bullish Scenario
– **Catalysts:** Continued institutional adoption, favorable regulatory developments, and increasing network activity.
– **Price Target:** Breakthrough of major resistance at $85,000, potentially reaching $100,000 by year-end.
– **Key Drivers:**
– **Hash Rate Growth:** Sustained increase in mining activity, signaling strong network security.
– **HODLer Behavior:** Long-term holders continue to accumulate, reducing sell-side pressure.
– **On-Chain Metrics:** Rising active addresses and transaction volume indicate robust utility.
### Bearish Scenario
– **Catalysts:** Macroeconomic downturns, regulatory crackdowns, or a significant drop in network activity.
– **Price Target:** Breakdown of primary support at $70,000, potentially testing $60,000 or lower.
– **Key Drivers:**
– **Exchange Inflows:** Rising BTC deposits to exchanges may indicate increased selling intent.
– **Market Sentiment:** Negative sentiment driven by external factors like geopolitical tensions.
– **On-Chain Metrics:** Declining active addresses and transaction volume suggest reduced network engagement.
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## Final Verdict
**Hold.**
**Why:** The current neutral RSI, bullish MACD crossover, and strong support levels suggest consolidation with potential upside, making holding the optimal strategy for now.
For further insights, refer to [CoinDesk](https://www.coindesk.com).